Social Security COLA 2027: what the latest estimates show
The official 2027 COLA comes in October, after September inflation data. Here's what TSCL and AARP estimate, how the raise is calculated and how 2026 compares.
The Social Security Administration (SSA) hasn’t announced the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) yet. Estimates published after the August inflation report put it at 3.5% to 3.6%, which would be larger than the 2.8% increase beneficiaries received for 2026.
The official figure depends on one more month of data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to release September’s Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, and SSA sets the COLA once that data is in.
Key takeaways
- The 2027 COLA hasn’t been announced. SSA will set it after BLS publishes September inflation data, scheduled for October 14, 2026.
- The Senior Citizens League estimated 3.5% on September 11. AARP projected 3.6% the same day.
- The 2026 COLA was 2.8%.
- The COLA compares the average CPI-W for July through September with the same three months of 2025.
The latest 2027 COLA estimates
| Estimate | Published | 2027 COLA estimate |
|---|---|---|
| The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) | September 11, 2026 | 3.5% |
| AARP | September 11, 2026 | 3.6% |
Both estimates came out on the day BLS released August inflation data. They’re projections, not the official figure.
The Senior Citizens League: 3.5%
TSCL, a nonpartisan seniors’ group, said on September 11 that it expects a 3.5% COLA for 2027. That’s 0.1 percentage point lower than its prediction a month earlier, and TSCL called it its final prediction before the announcement. The group’s estimate comes from its own statistical model, which uses the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate and the national unemployment rate.
By TSCL’s figures, a 3.5% COLA would raise the average monthly benefit it cites, $1,940.08, by $67.90 to $2,007.98.
AARP: 3.6%
AARP’s analysis, updated September 11, projects a 3.6% COLA. It’s based on the latest BLS price data and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland projections of inflation for the coming weeks. AARP says this is the first year it has published a COLA forecast ahead of the official announcement.
AARP says the average retired worker received about $2,086 a month in July, so a 3.6% COLA would add about $75. It estimates the average surviving spouse’s benefit of $1,933 would rise by about $70, and the average disability benefit of $1,635 by about $59.
The two groups use different average benefit amounts, which is why their dollar examples don’t match.
How the COLA is calculated
The formula is set by the Social Security Act. The COLA equals the percentage increase in the average Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for the third quarter of the current year (July, August and September) over the third-quarter average from the last year a COLA took effect. The result is rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent. If there’s no increase, there’s no COLA.
The most recent COLA took effect with December 2025 benefits, which are paid in January 2026. So the base for the 2027 COLA is the third-quarter 2025 CPI-W average of 317.265, according to SSA.
Last year’s calculation shows how it works. The third-quarter 2024 average was 308.729, and the third-quarter 2025 average was 317.265. SSA’s math: (317.265 − 308.729) ÷ 308.729 × 100 = 2.8%.
Two of the three months for 2027 are already in. The CPI-W was 327.104 in July 2026 and 328.481 in August, 3.4% and 3.5% higher than a year earlier, according to BLS data. September’s reading will complete the third-quarter average and decide the final COLA.
How 2026 compares
SSA’s 2.8% COLA for 2026 applied to benefits for 75 million Americans. Nearly 71 million Social Security beneficiaries saw it starting with benefits paid in January 2026, and nearly 7.5 million Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients got the increase starting December 31, 2025.
Recent COLAs, according to SSA:
- 2026: 2.8%
- 2025: 2.5%
- 2024: 3.2%
- 2023: 8.7%
A 2027 COLA of 3.5% or 3.6% would be the largest since the 8.7% increase for 2023.
When the official number comes out
BLS has scheduled the September 2026 Consumer Price Index for 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on October 14. TSCL and AARP both expect SSA to announce the 2027 COLA that day. Last year, SSA announced the 2026 COLA on October 24, 2025.
The new amount would show up in Social Security payments starting in January 2027. SSI recipients see it at the end of December: SSI is normally paid on the first of the month, and because January 1 is a holiday, SSA makes the January payment at the end of the previous December.
SSA also announces other annual figures alongside the COLA. For 2026, the maximum amount of earnings subject to Social Security tax is $184,500, and the earnings limit for workers younger than full retirement age all year is $24,480. Last year, SSA said COLA notices would be available online to most beneficiaries in late November, in the Message Center of their my Social Security account.
What the raise could mean for monthly budgets
Because the COLA is a percentage, the dollar increase depends on each person’s benefit. At 3.5%, a $1,000 monthly benefit would rise by $35, a $2,000 benefit by $70 and a $3,000 benefit by $105.
Medicare premiums also affect how much of the raise shows up in a deposit. Many beneficiaries have Medicare Part B premiums taken out of their Social Security payments. The standard Part B premium for 2026 is $202.90 a month, and the 2027 premium had not been announced as of late September. Any premium increase would offset part of the COLA for people who pay it.
The COLA is based on a national price index, so it won’t match every household’s costs. Comparing the new benefit amount with regular bills, using a simple framework such as the 50/30/20 rule, can show how much room the raise creates.
